Dynamic resilience analysis of the vaccine supply chain under disruptions caused by viral mutations and outbreaks of other epidemics

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. students, Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.

3 Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

4 Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

Background and Objectives: This study aims to investigate critical challenges in the influenza vaccine supply chain, including supply–demand imbalances, increased demand due to the COVID-19 outbreak, and the emergence of new viral strains. The research evaluates the resilience of the supply chain in Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran, focusing on disruptions caused by seasonal peaks resulting from viral mutations and the spread of new diseases. The ultimate goal is to develop and assess effective strategies to enhance supply chain resilience and ensure a stable and secure vaccine supply.
Materials and Methods: A System Dynamics modelling approach was employed to simulate supply chain disruptions and recovery processes. For the first time, resilience strategies— including the establishment of backup buffers, contracting with backup suppliers, and increasing domestic production capacity—were comprehensively analysed within the framework of budget allocation policies.
Results: The results indicate that strategies focused on increasing domestic production capacity, particularly Policy 3, which combines domestic production with backup suppliers and minimal backup buffers, significantly enhance supply chain resilience. These strategies create an optimal balance between costs and responsiveness to demand fluctuations.
Conclusion: The findings suggest that increasing domestic production capacity, alongside leveraging backup suppliers, can establish a balance between vaccine costs and inventory levels, thereby ensuring the long-term resilience of the influenza vaccine supply chain even under peak demand conditions caused by viral mutations.

Keywords

References

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Strategic Value Chain Management
Volume 2, Issue 2 - Serial Number 5
Research papers
August 2025
Pages 85-115

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History

  • Receive Date: 11 August 2025
  • Revise Date: 15 September 2025
  • Accept Date: 24 September 2025
  • Publish Date: 23 July 2025

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